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2024 January Barometer Update: More Bullish Than Predicted

At the start of 2024, we released our January Barometer forecast, highlighting that while the year might start with a weaker, more consolidative phase, it would ultimately transition into one of the strongest bullish trends in history. Now, as we find ourselves in the last quarter of 2024, we can see just how accurate that projection was.

In our original 2024 January Barometer blog post, we laid out a roadmap for the year, noting that the first half would likely struggle to find solid footing, only to see a strong W pattern form at the end of April, signaling a reversal and eventual rally into the latter part of the year.

This narrative has played out but even more bullish than expected, with the market transitioning from the consolidation phase into what we predicted in our post saying “there will be a strong bull market into the latter part of the year.”.

We also mentioned Larry Williams who said ““We may be in the last runaway bull market in 2024,”.

As outlined earlier in the year, uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election and Bitcoin’s halving is fuelling this bullish momentum even further.

2024: A Year of Political Unknowns

The U.S. election took a twist—Biden is out, and Harris is in. This shift has spiked market speculation. As we've mentioned, markets love uncertainty, and the unpredictable election is pushing the market higher.

  • More political unknowns = stronger market reaction
  • 2024 is turning out more bullish than even Larry Williams’ election-year expectations

January Barometer: Bullish Election Year Prediction

Our January Barometer called for consolidation in early 2024, followed by a rally in the second half. That’s exactly what's happening, but even stronger than we anticipated. The market’s W formation confirms a solid bullish trend.​

  • The January Barometer isn’t perfect but is key in election years
  • 2024’s bullish momentum is outpacing even our predictions

Not only was the re-election years poised bullish, but also the aggregated seasonal patterns of election years. Here you can see when a sitting president was running (this current year up until Biden dropped out), the market is predicted to be the most bullish. 

January Barometer: More Bullish Than We Thought

At TRI, we've always emphasized that the January Barometer is not a perfect predictor but a general guide for market behavior across the year. The fact that the forecast has so far aligned closely with the actual market activity only reinforces the importance of this tool, especially in election years.

The sharp pullback we anticipated near the year’s end is still on the horizon, but the overall market strength has blown past previous benchmarks.

Conclusion: January Barometer

2024’s market action aligns almost perfectly with our January Barometer. Political uncertainty, Bitcoin halving, and bullish sentiment have all come together to create a powerful rally with periods of consolidation and pull back at the start of the year.

​If you’re not yet part of the TRI community, now is the time. Take advantage of our 30-day free trial to experience our daily market updates, in-depth analyses, and a community of over 500 traders ready to help you navigate the final stages of this historic bull market.

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