How This Secret 2022 Decennial Pattern Predicts The Markets Future
Expert Larry Williams has uploaded his 2022 forecast to Youtube, providing insightful analysis into previous prediction accuracy along with trends to look out for in 2022. Williams uses the 2022 Decennial Roadmap Pattern as a basis for his 2022 outlook and references Edgar Lawrence Smith who first presented the Decennial theory in his book Tides in the Affairs of Men in 1939.
What is the Decennial Pattern?
The Decennial Pattern is a stock market study that repeats every ten years and looks at the averages of all the years ending in the same number. Since 1885, this trend has been so accurate that many investors consider it a fact. Williams describes the pattern in-depth, noting that he’s studied it himself since the 1970s.
Here, Williams provides the averages according to years ending in 2, which he describes as always reporting a yearly low, a bearish market. Each of these —2 years, however, has ended in a larger rally, as seen in the dips and rises on the above chart.
Larry Williams Long Term Investing Rule #1
“If you can’t sit through an 11-month decline in prices, you should not invest in anything.”
What does this mean for the 2022 forecast?
Williams reports that years ending in 2 have always been bullish, “usually with a decline somewhere in the year and a big rally starting later in the year.” If you haven’t clued in, 2022 should follow the same pattern. “Whatever this phenomenon is, it’s there and it’s real,” says Williams. Williams calls for a choppy March and April, with weakness into May and June, then according to the decennial study, July, August to October the outlook is very bullish.
Williams continues into greater detail with gold cycles, forecasts for specific sectors, and words of investing wisdom to help you in the coming market. Head over to the video (linked below) and watch the whole thing, as this blog post barely scratches the surface of his full analysis.
Connecting The January Barometer
This year's January Barometer finds that the first two quarters will be sideways or down, with a rally coming in at the end of the year. This matches other midterm election years, and lines up with a market being down before the elections, and then rallying after.
Midterm election years as found in the Stock Market Almanac 2022 show an average of the market years looking like the chart below.
Read more about the January Barometer in this blog post.
If we look at all the studies together, January Barometer, midterm election years, and the Decennial study, then we see a simple pattern emerging for 2022. The opportunity for investors lies closer to the middle of the year, where the market looks like it wants to bottom before the elections, then recover and rise towards the end of the year.
Always use multiple analyses and indicators to make market decisions, and know that on average the markets move upwards. If you want to time your investments this year use the Decennial study combined with the January barometer to average your purchases during down markets.
Starting or Growing Investments in 2022
For those wanting to invest in the stock market, the Decennial Pattern study can be a great place to get an idea about how the overall market will act in the coming year.
Williams predicts the market to be bullish later in the year and says “The best side of the market to be on this year is going to be the long side,”. He adds “Don’t listen to the purveyors of pessimism who are going to try and scare you out of your positions.”
Larry Williams Decennial Study video on Youtube [https://youtu.be/0O_ZOohg-Xk]
Tides and the Affairs of Men [https://www.amazon.com/Tides-Affairs-Men-Approach-Appraisal/dp/1684220890]
January Barometer blog post [https://therationalinvestor.com/blog/should-you-rely-on-the-january-barometer-to-predict-the-market]
January Barometer Twitter thread [https://twitter.com/CRInvestor/status/1488520959476703233]
Stock Trader Almanac 2022: [https://www.amazon.com/Stock-Traders-Almanac-2022-Investor/dp/1119845912]