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The 2023 Stock Market: A Mid-Year Review and Updated Forecast

As we cross the halfway mark of 2023, it’s time we revisit our earlier predictions and give an updated forecast for the rest of the year. In our previous blog post, we looked at seven studies that forecasted a 2023 stock market bottom.

If you missed that blog, check it out here: 7 Studies That Forecast a Bottom in the 2023 Stock Market

Now, let’s evaluate how these predictions did and what we can expect next.


Revisiting the S&P500 January Barometer:
“As Goes January, So Goes the Year”


The January Barometer has an impressive accuracy rate of over 80% and has always been an essential tool for stock market traders. As we predicted, January’s performance was a reliable indicator of the market’s basing outlook for the year. The market has followed the trend set in January, confirming the reliability of this barometer.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Long-Term Market Barometer:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest and most widely used stock market indices, has also been a reliable barometer for the entire market. The DJIA has shown a similar trend to the S&P500, with a sideways yet bullish outlook for the year.


Although the DJIA hasn’t been as volatile as the January Barometer suggested, it has held a steady sideways trajectory reinforcing the forecast from the January Barometer. This suggests that the broader market remains stable, with the potential for further growth as we move into the second half of the year.

The Wyckoff Accumulation Study: A Mid-Year Analysis:


The Wyckoff Accumulation Study is a valuable tool for identifying market trends. As we move into the second half of the year, we find ourselves in ending Phase B and moving into Phase C of the Wyckoff Accumulation study. This phase, characterized by a hard test of the lows often misleads the public into believing the trend is down, but price quickly recovers.


The Benner Cycle Low 2023: Are We in a “Good Time to Buy”?

The Benner Cycle predicted 2023 as a year likely to mark a bottom in the market. As we stand at the mid-point of the year, this prediction seems to hold true. The market has shown signs of bottoming out, and we are seeing a lot of sideways movement. This follows the Benner Cycle study, suggesting that is a “good time to buy stocks, etc.”.


Decennial Report For Years Ending in ‘3’:

The Decennial Report is a study of every year ending in the same number. This study predicted that 2023 would be a sideways year with a significant bottom during the year. The market trends so far align with this prediction, suggesting a potential bullish strength towards the end of the year.


Pre-Election Seasonal Pattern:

The Pre-Election Seasonal Pattern refers to a historical analysis of presidential term years and how they affect the market. The study for this year suggested that markets typically perform well during this period, with more volatility leading up to the election.

In line with the pre-election seasonal pattern the market has steadily moved upwards. However, as we approach the election period, investors should be prepared for potential volatility and make sure their portfolios are well-diversified to mitigate potential risks.

Has Bitcoin reached the bottom in 2023?

The four-year cycle projected Bitcoin would bottom out in 2023. As we move into the second half of the year, Bitcoin has indeed held a bottom and is now showing signs of a slow but steady upward trend. This aligns with our prediction that Bitcoin would have a sideways bottoming year, with a potential secondary test of the lows, as suggested by the Wyckoff accumulation pattern.


This could be a crucial turning point for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months, as it could set the tone for the next crypto bull cycle.


Conclusion: Still Sideways Yet Bullish

Our mid-year review suggests that the predictions made at the start of the year have largely held true. We can see that the market is following the trends predicted earlier, and we can expect ending the year on a higher note than we started..

However, it’s important to remember that a multitude of factors influence the stock market, and trends can quickly change. Stay updated, adjust your strategies as needed, and remember the wise words of Samuel Benner: “Years of hard times, low prices, and a good time to buy stocks “Corner Lots,” Goods, etc., and hold till the “Boom” reaches the years of good times; then unload.”






Sources:
Stock Traders Almanac 2023
7 Studies That Forecast a Bottom in the 2023 Stock Market
Predicting 100 Years of Market Movement with the Benner Cycle

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